United Arab Emirates decision to leave OPEC
Expert Insight: Règis Danielian
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), starting May 1, marks one of the most significant shifts in global energy markets in recent years.
The UAE announced it will officially exit the organisation after nearly 60 years of membership, citing its “long-term strategic and economic vision” and the need for greater flexibility in energy policy and production planning.
Triggered by the Iran war which has suffocated oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the governments desire to meet ‘sustainable growth’ of energy in the long term. The move has already triggered global discussion surrounding the future influence of OPEC, global oil pricing mechanisms, and the long-term direction of energy markets.
The UAE being the third-largest OPEC oil producer prompts analysts to suggest the UAE’s departure could weaken OPEC’s ability to coordinate oil supply and stabilise prices, particularly as the country plans to expand its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
At the same time, the decision reflects a broader transformation taking place across Gulf economies. Increasingly, major oil-producing nations are balancing fossil fuel revenues with wider economic diversification strategies, sovereign wealth investment, energy security, and growing commitments to renewable energy and sustainability.
While some political leaders such as US President Donald Trump welcomed the move as a potential pathway toward lower fuel prices, energy experts caution that a weakened OPEC could also lead to greater market volatility and less predictability in global energy systems.
“The last time a major country has left the OPEC, was Qatar, in 2019. The overall situation differs, but the prompt withdrawal of the UAE of this organisation, whereas it was almost a funding member, is an event not to be neglected, whom the consequences, not (fore)seenable within a short time frame, could strongly reframe the energy geostrategy of the region and the world.” - Régis Danielian